Wide open. Oklahoma has what is broadly considered to be the lowest barriers to entry for a medical cannabis market. With nearly 10% of the population signed up as patients, Oklahoma sets the top end of the range for medicinal market population penetration.
There are no qualifying MMJ conditions, and the broad rule states "accepted standards a reasonable and prudent physician would follow when recommending or approving any medication." Good news for any Oklahoma cannabis enthusiasts who have stubbed their toe in the last decade and have a good rapport with their physician.
Advocates gave up their bid for legalizing commercial adult-use in November's election because of the difficulty collecting signatures due to COVID. When it does happen, expect only a small boost from the transition to adult-use as Oklahoma does not have a large tourism industry, and anyone who wants a medical card can already get one.
With no significant barriers to entry and a saturated license situation, no MSOs have yet flocked to the state. Much like mature, adult-use markets in Colorado and Oregon, MSOs will look to enter the Sooner State later rather than sooner.
With almost 2K retail licenses issued for the projected ~$800MM in revenue for 2020, few if any of the existing operators would be meaningfully accretive from a top or bottom line. If an operator can be profitable in this Bible Belt state, they will earn the "proven operator" title.
Investors would be best served to allow existing operators to beat themselves silly before picking what horse to ride. That said, don't wait too late to enter this market as it is projected to pull in over ~$1B in revenue by 2021, putting it in the top ten per capita spending on cannabis.